Stock Market Today: Dow Falling, S&P 500, Nasdaq Rising Ahead of Election; Trump Media, Nvidia, Intel, Apple, More Movers; Treasury Yields Fall

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Nov. 4, 2024 at 5:32 AM EST

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Adam Clark

From earnings to elections and economists—the focus of the market this week is set to shift decisively this week. U.S. stock futures were wavering early Monday to kick off a busy week featuring both the presidential election and a Federal Reserve monetary-policy meeting.

S&P 500 futures were climbing 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures were rising less than 0.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.1%.

Americans go to the polls Tuesday to elect a new president, choosing between Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Donald Trump. However, the results of the election might not be known for several days.

“Despite some unwinding of Trump trades, asset markets are still broadly pricing in a Trump win. As things stand now, we expect the dollar to sell off if Harris wins, while the impact of a Trump win may depend more on the Congress composition,” ING analyst Francesco Pesole wrote.

That will be followed by the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday, with markets overwhelmingly pricing in a quarter-point reduction in the federal-funds rate.

“On Thursday, when we may or may not know who the next President is going to be, we should almost certainly see a 25 basis points cut from the Fed and a reiteration from [Fed Chair] Powell that the Fed's subsequent meetings will be data dependent,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid in a research note.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note stood at 4.319% early on Monday, ticking down from the previous week. Meanwhile, crude oil prices were gaining nearly 2% on reports that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have agreed to extend oil output cuts through the end of December.