Stock Market News for Monday, Nov. 4, 2024: Dow Fell Ahead of Election; Trump Media, Nvidia, Intel, Apple, More Movers; Treasury Yields Fall

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Nov. 4, 2024 at 4:27 PM EST

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Karishma Vanjani

In the last six Presidential elections, the sale of government debt that expires in three years has been strong. This year, the tables have flipped.

The highest yield accepted by investors betting on an auction of $58 billion in 3-year notes was 4.152%. This was higher than the six auction average of 4.132% and 0.9 basis points higher than the yield seen pre-bidding deadline. Both those data points indicate that the government had to offer higher yields to entice investors to buy the debt, suggesting a relatively weak auction.

The sale was supposed to benefit from two factors: one, the yields on 3-year notes had moved up over 60 basis points from the low levels seen in September, and historical data tells us that in election years this duration has done particularly well.

“November 3-year auctions stopped-through during the last six consecutive US presidential election years, and by an average of 0.6 basis points,” Vail Hartman from BMO writes. Stop-through is another way to say that the government was able to sell the bonds at a lower yield lower than what was indicated prior to the auction.

Today’s results in part could be because of the risk events ahead for investors–an election result and a Federal Reserve monetary policy decision are the top two--that have kept them on the sidelines.